The Equality of Opportunity Project

The Geography of Upward Mobility in America

Children's Chances of Reaching Top 20% of Income Distribution Given Parents in Bottom 20% Childhood Exposure Effects

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This map shows rates of upward mobility for children born in the 1980s for 741 metro and rural areas ("commuting zones") in the U.S. Upward mobility is measured by the fraction of children who reach the top fifth of the national income distribution, conditional on having parents in the bottom fifth. Lighter colors represent areas with higher levels of upward mobility.

Gain from Moving to a Better Neighborhood

By Child's Age at Move Childhood Exposure Effects

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This figure plots the percentage gain from moving to a better area by the age at which the child moves, based on an analysis of 5 million families who moved across metro areas in the U.S. For example, children who move at age 9 have outcomes that are about 50% between the outcomes of children who grow up permanently in the origin and destination areas. Those who move at later ages get less of a gain from moving to a better area.

Cost Effective Policy

Effects of the Moving to Opportunity Experiment on Individual Income in Adulthood Cost Effective Policy (MTO experiment)

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This figure shows the average earnings of three groups of children whose families enrolled in the MTO Experiment before they turned 13: those who grew up in public housing projects (Control), those who received standard Section 8 housing vouchers, and those who received vouchers to move to low-poverty neighborhoods (experimental).

Local Area Rankings

Causal Effects of the 100 Largest Commuting Zones (Metro Areas) on Household Income in Adulthood

Commuting Zone	State	All Kids	Boys	Girls
Seattle	Washington	11.6%	9.1%	14.2%
Minneapolis	Minnesota	9.7%	9.2%	10.1%
Salt Lake City	Utah	9.2%	3.6%	15.3%
Reading	Pennsylvania	9.1%	8.4%	9.7%
Madison	Wisconsin	7.4%	10.4%	3.9%
Des Moines	Iowa	6.6%	4.7%	8.5%
Omaha	Nebraska	6.4%	5%	7.8%
Washington DC	District Of Columbia	5.8%	4.7%	7.1%
Spokane	Washington	5.6%	8.1%	2.7%
Portland	Oregon	5.2%	7.6%	2.6%
Bakersfield	California	4.7%	7%	2.2%
Harrisburg	Pennsylvania	4.6%	5.4%	3.6%
Syracuse	New York	4.5%	7.9%	0.6%
Canton	Ohio	4.2%	8%	0%
Fort Worth	Texas	3.7%	5.8%	1.4%
Las Vegas	Nevada	3.7%	-1.7%	9.6%
Portland	Maine	3.7%	6.5%	0.6%
San Diego	California	3.3%	1.1%	5.7%
Erie	Pennsylvania	3.3%	6.5%	-0.3%
Tulsa	Oklahoma	3.3%	3.7%	2.8%
Toms River	New Jersey	2.9%	-1.1%	7.4%
Honolulu	Hawaii	2.9%	2%	3.8%
Santa Barbara	California	2.7%	0%	5.5%
San Francisco	California	2.5%	-0.3%	5.6%
Pittsburgh	Pennsylvania	2.1%	-0.1%	4.6%
Boston	Massachusetts	2.1%	3.3%	0.8%
San Jose	California	1.9%	-7.6%	12.4%
Manchester	New Hampshire	1.6%	3.7%	-0.7%
Denver	Colorado	1.3%	2.1%	0.5%
Allentown	Pennsylvania	1.3%	-2.2%	5.1%
Brownsville	Texas	1.2%	2.6%	-0.3%
Santa Rosa	California	1.1%	0%	2.3%
Eugene	Oregon	1%	2.9%	-1%
Oklahoma City	Oklahoma	1%	0%	2.2%
Phoenix	Arizona	0.7%	-3.2%	5%
Modesto	California	0.6%	-2%	3.4%
Cleveland	Ohio	0.5%	5.7%	-5.1%
Sacramento	California	-0.2%	-4.5%	4.6%
Providence	Rhode Island	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.5%
Newark	New Jersey	-0.3%	2.3%	-3.2%
Little Rock	Arkansas	-0.4%	6.7%	-8.1%
Buffalo	New York	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.4%
Scranton	Pennsylvania	-0.5%	-4.2%	3.6%
Gary	Indiana	-1%	5.5%	-8.2%
El Paso	Texas	-1.4%	0.9%	-3.9%
Grand Rapids	Michigan	-1.4%	0.2%	-3.2%
Louisville	Kentucky	-1.7%	1.4%	-5%
Kansas City	Missouri	-1.7%	-2.5%	-0.8%
Columbus	Ohio	-1.8%	3.6%	-7.7%
Philadelphia	Pennsylvania	-2%	-5.2%	1.6%
Springfield	Massachusetts	-2.2%	-0.8%	-3.6%
Albany	New York	-2.3%	2.9%	-7.9%
Cincinnati	Ohio	-2.3%	-0.1%	-4.7%
Jacksonville	Florida	-2.6%	1.9%	-7.5%
Dallas	Texas	-2.7%	-8.7%	3.9%
Miami	Florida	-2.8%	-6.1%	0.9%
Houston	Texas	-2.8%	-5.6%	0.3%
Toledo	Ohio	-2.9%	-1.8%	-4%
Youngstown	Ohio	-3.2%	2.8%	-9.9%
Rockford	Illinois	-3.5%	-4.3%	-2.5%
Dayton	Ohio	-3.7%	-4.3%	-2.9%
Lakeland	Florida	-4.1%	-5.1%	-3%
Austin	Texas	-4.3%	-4.3%	-4.2%
Bridgeport	Connecticut	-4.6%	-6.8%	-2.1%
Knoxville	Tennessee	-5%	-1.6%	-8.8%
St. Louis	Missouri	-5%	-3.6%	-6.5%
Milwaukee	Wisconsin	-5.4%	-6.8%	-3.9%
Nashville	Tennessee	-5.5%	-3.4%	-7.7%
South Bend	Indiana	-5.6%	-3.6%	-7.6%
Richmond	Virginia	-5.8%	-4.8%	-6.7%
Mobile	Alabama	-6.5%	-6.3%	-6.6%
Indianapolis	Indiana	-6.6%	-3.1%	-10.4%
Cape Coral	Florida	-6.8%	-14.7%	1.9%
Albuquerque	New Mexico	-7%	-11%	-2.7%
Sarasota	Florida	-7.2%	-9.1%	-5%
Tampa	Florida	-7.4%	-10%	-4.4%
Atlanta	Georgia	-8.1%	-7.9%	-8.2%
Baltimore	Maryland	-8.2%	-14.3%	-1.4%
Tucson	Arizona	-8.2%	-18.7%	3.4%
Poughkeepsie	New York	-8.2%	-8%	-8.4%
Pensacola	Florida	-8.4%	-10.4%	-6.1%
New York	New York	-9%	-8.2%	-9.9%
Los Angeles	California	-9.2%	-12.3%	-5.8%
Virginia Beach	Virginia	-9.4%	-14.3%	-4%
Detroit	Michigan	-9.5%	-15.4%	-2.8%
San Antonio	Texas	-9.7%	-10%	-9.2%
Port St. Lucie	Florida	-9.9%	-15.3%	-3.7%
Baton Rouge	Louisiana	-10.4%	-4.8%	-16.5%
Birmingham	Alabama	-10.5%	-12.8%	-7.9%
Chicago	Illinois	-11.1%	-14%	-7.7%
Fresno	California	-11.1%	-14.5%	-7.2%
Orlando	Florida	-11.4%	-13.4%	-9%
Memphis	Tennessee	-11.6%	-11.1%	-12.1%
Greenville	South Carolina	-12.2%	-12.7%	-11.5%
Raleigh	North Carolina	-12.6%	-11.8%	-13.3%
Columbia	South Carolina	-13.9%	-16.3%	-11%
Charlotte	North Carolina	-14.4%	-11.3%	-17.5%
Greensboro	North Carolina	-14.8%	-15.9%	-13.3%
New Orleans	Louisiana	-14.8%	-11.1%	-18.6%
Fayetteville	North Carolina	-17.8%	-17.8%	-17.6%

Causal Effects of the 100 Largest Counties on Household Income in Adulthood

County	State	All Kids	Boys	Girls
Dupage	Illinois	15.1%	12.2%	18.2%
Snohomish	Washington	14.4%	13.9%	14.6%
Bergen	New Jersey	14.1%	16.6%	11.2%
Bucks	Pennsylvania	13.3%	16.8%	9.2%
Contra Costa	California	12.1%	14.5%	9.4%
Fairfax	Virginia	12.1%	9.2%	15.1%
King	Washington	11.3%	11.1%	11.4%
Norfolk	Massachusetts	10.8%	12.4%	8.9%
Montgomery	Maryland	10.5%	7.5%	13.6%
Middlesex	New Jersey	8.6%	7.8%	9.4%
Montgomery	Pennsylvania	7.9%	4.4%	11.6%
Ventura	California	7.4%	10.9%	3.5%
Middlesex	Massachusetts	6.5%	7.6%	5.2%
Macomb	Michigan	5.6%	2.5%	8.9%
San Mateo	California	5.6%	4.2%	7%
Hudson	New Jersey	4.9%	10.4%	-1.1%
Salt Lake	Utah	4.4%	-0.9%	10.2%
Pierce	Washington	3.8%	5.5%	2%
Providence	Rhode Island	3.8%	6.5%	0.8%
Kern	California	3.7%	6%	1.1%
Monmouth	New Jersey	3.6%	0.6%	6.8%
San Diego	California	3.3%	1.6%	5.2%
Worcester	Massachusetts	2.7%	1.2%	4.4%
Hennepin	Minnesota	2.7%	4.8%	0.3%
Hartford	Connecticut	2.6%	5%	-0.1%
Erie	New York	2.6%	7.2%	-2.6%
Maricopa	Arizona	2.5%	-2.6%	8.1%
Clark	Nevada	2.5%	-1.2%	6.6%
Multnomah	Oregon	2.2%	7.9%	-4.2%
Prince Georges	Maryland	2%	6.5%	-2.9%
Honolulu	Hawaii	1.9%	0.5%	3.4%
Santa Clara	California	1.6%	-2.2%	5.8%
Pinellas	Florida	1.4%	1.8%	0.9%
San Francisco	California	1.1%	-5.5%	8.4%
Suffolk	New York	0.9%	6.6%	-5.5%
Duval	Florida	0.6%	5.2%	-4.5%
District Of Columbia	District Of Columbia	0.5%	2.8%	-2%
Tarrant	Texas	0.3%	2%	-1.5%
El Paso	Texas	-0.3%	0.6%	-1.2%
Oakland	Michigan	-0.5%	-6.1%	5.7%
Sacramento	California	-0.6%	-2.9%	2%
Dade	Florida	-0.6%	-6.6%	6%
Nassau	New York	-0.7%	1.5%	-3.1%
Harris	Texas	-0.7%	-3.3%	2.1%
Tulsa	Oklahoma	-1.4%	-6.2%	3.9%
Essex	Massachusetts	-1.5%	-2.2%	-0.6%
Lake	Illinois	-1.8%	-7.3%	4.2%
Allegheny	Pennsylvania	-2.1%	-2.5%	-1.6%
Franklin	Ohio	-2.1%	7.6%	-12.9%
Westchester	New York	-2.3%	-9.6%	5.8%
St Louis	Missouri	-2.4%	-2.7%	-2%
Queens	New York	-2.5%	-6.1%	1.5%
Cuyahoga	Ohio	-2.9%	1.7%	-7.9%
Philadelphia	Pennsylvania	-2.9%	-7.3%	2%
Hamilton	Ohio	-3.1%	2.9%	-9.7%
Orange	California	-3.2%	-10.7%	5.1%
Suffolk	Massachusetts	-3.2%	4.3%	-11.5%
Jefferson	Kentucky	-3.5%	-0.2%	-7.1%
Broward	Florida	-3.8%	-3.4%	-4.2%
San Joaquin	California	-3.9%	-7.1%	-0.4%
Baltimore	Maryland	-4.4%	-11%	2.9%
Jackson	Missouri	-4.6%	-6.9%	-2%
Hidalgo	Texas	-4.6%	-9.2%	0.4%
DeKalb	Georgia	-4.7%	-1.4%	-8.2%
Kent	Michigan	-4.9%	-7.8%	-1.7%
Dallas	Texas	-5.1%	-7.9%	-2%
Oklahoma	Oklahoma	-5.6%	-7.6%	-3.4%
Alameda	California	-5.6%	-6.7%	-4.4%
Kings	New York	-5.8%	-8.5%	-2.7%
Gwinnett	Georgia	-6%	-14.2%	3%
Cobb	Georgia	-6.9%	-11.6%	-1.7%
Bexar	Texas	-7.1%	-12%	-1.6%
Travis	Texas	-7.5%	-10.4%	-4.3%
Bernalillo	New Mexico	-7.6%	-14%	-0.4%
Davidson	Tennessee	-7.8%	-5.7%	-10%
Fairfield	Connecticut	-8.3%	-13.5%	-2.5%
New Haven	Connecticut	-8.4%	-15%	-1%
Essex	New Jersey	-8.6%	-4.8%	-12.7%
Montgomery	Ohio	-8.9%	-9%	-8.7%
San Bernardino	California	-9%	-11.9%	-5.6%
Monroe	New York	-9.1%	-13.9%	-3.7%
Shelby	Tennessee	-9.6%	-9%	-10.1%
Jefferson	Alabama	-10.1%	-10.8%	-9.3%
Los Angeles	California	-10.6%	-13%	-8%
New York	New York	-10.9%	-7%	-14.9%
Riverside	California	-11.2%	-17%	-4.7%
Palm Beach	Florida	-11.3%	-16.5%	-5.5%
Wake	North Carolina	-11.4%	-13.4%	-9.1%
Fulton	Georgia	-11.6%	-11.6%	-11.5%
Marion	Indiana	-12.1%	-8.8%	-15.5%
Pima	Arizona	-12.2%	-23%	-0%
Bronx	New York	-12.3%	-15.2%	-9%
Milwaukee	Wisconsin	-12.3%	-14.8%	-9.4%
Wayne	Michigan	-12.5%	-17.4%	-6.9%
Fresno	California	-12.9%	-16.8%	-8.5%
Cook	Illinois	-13.3%	-13.7%	-12.8%
Orange	Florida	-13.5%	-14.6%	-12%
Hillsborough	Florida	-13.5%	-16.3%	-10.2%
Mecklenburg	North Carolina	-13.8%	-12.8%	-14.7%
Baltimore City	Maryland	-17.3%	-27.9%	-5.4%

Commuting Zones
Counties

For example, if a child were to grow up in the Seattle metro area instead of an average place, he/she would make about 12% more at age 26. The average level of household income at age 26 is $26,000, so this 12% gain translates to $3,120 of additional income.